Search results for " proper scoring rules"

showing 5 items of 5 documents

Extropy: Complementary Dual of Entropy

2015

This article provides a completion to theories of information based on entropy, resolving a longstanding question in its axiomatization as proposed by Shannon and pursued by Jaynes. We show that Shannon's entropy function has a complementary dual function which we call "extropy." The entropy and the extropy of a binary distribution are identical. However, the measure bifurcates into a pair of distinct measures for any quantity that is not merely an event indicator. As with entropy, the maximum extropy distribution is also the uniform distribution, and both measures are invariant with respect to permutations of their mass functions. However, they behave quite differently in their assessments…

Bregman divergenceFOS: Computer and information sciencesStatistics and ProbabilitySettore MAT/06 - Probabilita' E Statistica MatematicaKullback–Leibler divergenceComputer Science - Information TheoryGeneral MathematicsFOS: Physical sciencesBinary numberMathematics - Statistics TheoryStatistics Theory (math.ST)Kullback–Leibler divergenceBregman divergenceproper scoring rulesGini index of heterogeneityDifferential entropyBinary entropy functionFOS: MathematicsEntropy (information theory)Statistical physicsDual functionAxiomMathematicsdifferential and relative entropy/extropy Kullback- Leibler divergence Bregman divergence duality proper scoring rules Gini index of heterogeneity repeat rate.Settore ING-INF/05 - Sistemi Di Elaborazione Delle InformazioniDifferential and relative entropy/extropyInformation Theory (cs.IT)Probability (math.PR)repeat ratePhysics - Data Analysis Statistics and ProbabilitydualityStatistics Probability and UncertaintySettore SECS-S/01 - StatisticaMathematics - ProbabilityData Analysis Statistics and Probability (physics.data-an)Statistical Science
researchProduct

Assessing fat-tailed sequential forecast distributions for the Dow-Jones index with logarithmic scoring rules

2007

We use the logarithmic scoring rule for distributions to assess a variety of fat-tailed sequential forecasting distributions for the Dow-Jones industrial stock index from 1980 to the present. The methodology applies Bruno de Finetti''s contributions to understanding how to compare the quality of different coherent forecasting distributions for the same sequence of observations, using proper scoring rules. Four different forms of forecasting distributions are compared: a mixture Normal, a mixture of convex combinations of three Normal distributions, a mixture exponential power distribution, and a mixture of a convex combination of three exponential power distributions. The mixture linear com…

Dow-Jones index exponential power distributions fat tails logarithmic scoring rule mixture distributions partial exchangeability proper scoring rules subjective probability subjectivist statistical methods.
researchProduct

Sequentially Forecasting Economic Indices Using Mixture Linear Combinations of EP Distributions

2021

This article displays an application of the statistical method moti- vated by Bruno de Finetti's operational subjective theory of probability. We use exchangeable forecasting distributions based on mixtures of linear com- binations of exponential power (EP) distributions to forecast the sequence of daily rates of return from the Dow-Jones index of stock prices over a 20 year period. The operational subjective statistical method for comparing distributions is quite different from that commonly used in data analysis, because it rejects the basic tenets underlying the practice of hypothesis test- ing. In its place, proper scoring rules for forecast distributions are used to assess the values o…

Settore MAT/06 - Probabilita' E Statistica MatematicaLogarithmDow-Jones index exponential power distributions fat tails logarithmic scoring rule mixture distributions partial exchangeability proper scoring rules subjective probability subjectivist statistical methods.Scoring ruleStatistical parameterExponential functionNormal distributionSettore SECS-S/06 -Metodi Mat. dell'Economia e d. Scienze Attuariali e Finanz.StatisticsEconometricsSettore SECS-S/01 - StatisticaLinear combinationMathematicsStatistical hypothesis testingJournal of Data Science
researchProduct

Coherent Conditional Previsions and Proper Scoring Rules

2012

In this paper we study the relationship between the notion of coherence for conditional prevision assessments on a family of finite conditional random quantities and the notion of admissibility with respect to bounded strictly proper scoring rules. Our work extends recent results given by the last two authors of this paper on the equivalence between coherence and admissibility for conditional probability assessments. In order to prove that admissibility implies coherence a key role is played by the notion of Bregman divergence.

Settore MAT/06 - Probabilita' E Statistica Matematicabregman divergenceproper scor- ing rulesConditional prevision assessmentsconditional scoring rulesstrong dominanceConditional probabilityweak dominanceCoherence (statistics)Bregman divergenceConditional prevision assessments coherence proper scoring rules conditional scoring rules weak dominance strong dominance admissibility Bregman divergence.proper scoring rulescoherenceBounded functionKey (cryptography)admissibilityConditional prevision assessments; conditional scoring rules; admissibility; proper scor- ing rules; weak dominance; strong dominanceEquivalence (measure theory)Mathematical economicsconditional prevision assessments; strong dominance; admissibility; proper scoring rules; bregman divergence; weak dominance; conditional scoring rules; coherenceMathematics
researchProduct

Coherent conditional probabilities and proper scoring rules

2011

In this paper we study the relationship between the notion of coherence for conditional probability assessments on a family of conditional events and the notion of admissibility with respect to scoring rules. By extending a recent result given in literature for unconditional events, we prove, for any given strictly proper scoring rule s, the equivalence between the coherence of a conditional probability assessment and its admissibility with respect to s. In this paper we focus our analysis on the case of continuous bounded scoring rules. In this context a key role is also played by Bregman divergence and by a related theoretical aspect. Finally, we briefly illustrate a possible way of defin…

total coherenceSettore MAT/06 - Probabilita' E Statistica Matematicabregman divergencestrong dominanceconditional scoring rulesConditional probability assessments coherence penalty criterion proper scoring rules conditional scoring rules weak dominance strong dominance admissibility Bregman divergence g-coherence total coherence imprecise probability assessments.weak dominancestrong dominance; conditional probability assessments; imprecise probability assessments; gcoherence; proper scoring rules; bregman divergence; weak dominance; coherence; imprecise probability assessments.; admissibility; g-coherence; penalty criterion; conditional scoring rules; total coherencepenalty criteriongcoherenceproper scoring rulescoherenceconditional probability assessmentsg-coherenceimprecise probability assessmentsadmissibility
researchProduct